A Numbers Game – All Signs Show 2012 as the Year of the Dubai Recovery

‘Cautious Optimism’, seem to be the watch words for developing nations when it comes to the economic recovery. But taking a look at some of the numbers coming out of the UAE right now, you would be forgiven for thinking that the recovery is a distant memory and the country is moving on in strides.

It was always felt that such an immature market will fall fastest and also recover fastest. But take a look at these numbers and in less than five years since the downturn, it appears that Dubai is powering out the other side …

  • AED 499 billion – Value of UAE’s non-oil foreign trade in H1 2012
  • AED 9.79 billion – revenue generated by Dubai’s hotels
  • AED 44.6 billion – budget allocated by the Federal Government for 2013
  • AED 1.41 trillion – UAE’s nominal GDP expected this year

For a country with a population of less than eight million people, these are remarkable numbers.

All the signs show that Dubai and the UAE are well set for a period of sustained growth – tourism is up, trade, aviation and retail sectors are all reporting strong figures and the Dubai property market is also experiencing its largest growth period in five years.

Dubai’s hotels and serviced apartments reported a 10 per cent increase in the number of guests with more than five million visitors to the Emirate in the first six months of the year. This saw an increase in revenue of 22 percent.

“The recovery of the economy if continuing despite the uncertain global economic environment,” said the report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its report of the UAE. “For 2012 oil production is projected to be flat, whereas non-oil growth is expected to strengthen further to 3.5 percent.”

We have talked in this blog before about confidence driving the market; especially in a market such as Dubai where sentiment has a direct impact on pricing given the immaturity of the market. “Investor sentiment is back – big time in the country and we could feel that,” Rohit Walia, CEO of Alpen Capital and Executive Vice-President of Sarasin Alpen, a Swiss private bank, told Gulf News.

As companies start to close out the end of 2012 and look into the crystal ball for strategic insights which will stand them out from the crowd in 2013, board meetings are more upbeat with a focus on growing staff and investing again. This will have a massive effect on the property market. There has been a niggling doubt that Dubai simply has too many apartments to meet any demand, but with recruitment up, confidence up and revenues up, Dubai’s market is set for another growth spurt.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this and any other news on Dubai Property Invest. And don’t forget to also join us on Twitter @dxbpropinvest

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